Saaty T.L., Vargas L.G. Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks

2nd ed. — N.Y.: Springer, 2013.— XVII, 363 p. 150 illus., 18 illus. in color. — ISBN: 9781461472780, 1461472784.The Analytic Network Process (ANP), developed by Thomas Saaty in his work on multicriteria decision making, applies network structures with dependence and feedback to complex decision making. This new edition of Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process is a selection of the latest applications of ANP to economic, social and political decisions, and also to technological design. The ANP is a methodological tool that is helpful to organize knowledge and thinking, elicit judgments registered in both in memory and in feelings, quantify the judgments and derive priorities from them, and finally synthesize these diverse priorities into a single mathematically and logically justifiable overall outcome. In the process of deriving this outcome, the ANP also allows for the representation and synthesis of diverse opinions in the midst of discussion and debate.The book focuses on the application of the ANP in three different areas: economics, the social sciences and the linking of measurement with human values. Economists can use the ANP for an alternate approach for dealing with economic problems than the usual mathematical models on which economics bases its quantitative thinking. For psychologists, sociologists and political scientists, the ANP offers the methodology they have sought for some time to quantify and derive measurements for intangibles. Finally the book applies the ANP to provide people in the physical and engineering sciences with a quantitative method to link hard measurement to human values. In such a process, one is able to interpret the true meaning of measurements made on a uniform scale using a unit.The Analytic Network Process
Forecasting the Resurgence of the U. S. Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach
An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial-Crisis Forecasting
Outsourcing a Firm’s Application Development Group
ANWR: Artic National Wildlife Refuge an ANP Validation Example
The Ford Explorer Case
Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East Conflict Resolution
U. S. Energy Security
Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term
When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone?
The Conflict Between China and Taiwan
U. S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat
Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods
An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making: Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts
Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThe Analytic Network ProcessThe Analytic Network Process (ANP)
The Supermatrix OfA Feedback System (Saaty, 2001, 2005)
The Control Hierarchy And What Question To Ask
The Benefits, Costs, Opportunities And Risks And Their Merit Ratings
Priorities In The Supermatrix
On The Limit Supermatrix And Its Cesaro Sum
Rating
Two Examples of Estimating Market Share
Group Decision Making
Forecasting the resurgence of the U.S. economy in 2001: an expert judgment approachOn the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting
The Setting: An Economic Slowdown after Years of Expansion
Application of ANP to the Macroeconomic Forecasting Problem
Producing the Forecast of the RecoveryAn Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecastingThe ANP Financial Crisis Model Structure
Building the ANP Financial Crisis Model
The 1991 U.S. Banking CrisisOutsourcesing a firm's application development groupThe Model
BOCR Priorities
Results
Sensitivity Analysis
Where to Outsource
ANWR - Artic National Wildlife Refuge: an ANP validation exampleBOCR Modelfor ANWR
Results
Conclusion and Sensitivity Analyses
The FORD explorer caseCreating The Model
Benefits Model
Costs Model
Risks Model
Ratings and Synthesis
Sensitivity Analysis
Pennsylvania high-speed MAGLEV projectAlternatives and BOCR Model
Results
Sensitivity Analysis
U.S. energy securityANP Model Description
Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks Model
Model Results
Sensitivity AnalysisStabilizesfg social security for the long-termStrategic Criteria
Alternatives
Benefits/Opportunities/Costs/Risks
Results
Sensitivity AnalysisThe most hopeful outcome in the Middle East conflict: the analytic network process approachStructure of the Decision Problem
Prioritization
Synthesis of All the BOCR Merits
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions
The conflict between China and TaiwanPossible Alternatives
BOCR Model
Overall Synthesized Results
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions
U. S. response to North Korean nuclear threatAlternative Courses of Action
Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks
Results
Sensitivity AnalysisCriteria for evaluating Group Decision Making MethodsCriteria for Group Decision Making Methods
Group Decision Making Methods
Evaluation of the Methods on the Criteria